What's next in the Middle East?

13 August 2020 was a historic day for the state of Israel as the United Arab Emirates ( UAE) became the third Islamic country to normalise its relation with the Jewish state after Egypt and Jordan. Israel – UAE agreement also known as Abraham Accord ( named after the patriarch of Judaism , Islam and Christianity) was a result of a decade long strong but informal relationship between the two. USA an ally of both mediated the peace treaty. Most of the countries like Egypt ,Jordan, France India ,Germany etc welcomed the effort all the countries to establish peace in the region on the other side many decries this treaty. On 31st August the first commercial flight flew from Tel Aviv( de facto capital of Israel) to Abu Dhabi through the airspace of Saudi Arabia. However Saudi Arab officials have stated that they will not follow the path of the neighbour regarding Israel until and unless Israel give Palestinians there land and rights. However several reports have claimed the back channel talks between Riyadh and Tel Aviv mostly related to containing Iran in the region. Both are expected to be in formal relationship in coming 5-10 years. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu already have hinted to be in talks with Islamic countries too.

Among the primary criticisers of this pact includes Iran,Turkey as well as Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO).

Iran's news agency referred this pact shameful. PLO called it backstabbing their cause, whereas Turkish Foreign Ministry stated that" history will remember who were the people who betrayed Palestinians and their cause." It reveals Ankara's hypocrisy as it was the first country in the region to stablish formal relationship with Israel in 1949. Moreover Turkish President Recep Taiyyab Erdogan also threatened to suspend their relationship with UAE.

Recent trends shows us factionalism emerging in the region. The leaders of the two factions are Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Turkish leader Erdogan wants to become the new leader of the Muslim world overthrowing the dominance of Riyadh. Last year an Islamic Summit was called at Kuala Lumpur having no association with OIC( Organisation of Islamic Cooperation , a group of 57 Muslim majority countries around the world) under leadership of Turkey ,Malaysia and Iran. Turkey wants OIC to dishevel because of Saudi's dominance in it. Iran an all-weather enemy of Saudi Arab is more than happy to do this. Pakistan, an old ally of the Kingdom recently experienced some spark with Riyadh when their Foreign Minister criticized OIC not for raising the Kashmir issue. Riyadh in retaliation suspended their financial aid. This followed by a unsuccessful Saudi trip of their Army General Bajwa. There is going to be a split in the OIC sooner or later.

For a country like India who always had to balance its foreign policy between the Gulf countries and Israel it's a good news. The Gulf countries are important for India because of economic and energy needs. Gulf region give employments to a large number of Indian expatriates who sends remittance back to India. Whereas Israel supplies defence equipments as well as intelligence information to India. The drive of Indian foreign policy will get smoother as the relationship between Gulf and Israel are softening.

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