NEPAl: China's next MALDIVES

Recent steps taken by the government of Nepal have disturbed its relations with India. From Releasing new map which includes India's Kalapani, Limphyadura and lipulekh to blaming Indians for the spread of covid-19 in Nepal, giving statements against India. The series of event that has occurred in Nepal have some of his similarities from what we saw in Maldives a few years back.

Nepal dependence on India can't be ignored. India accounts for almost 64.95 % of the Nepal total imports as well as 56.72 % of Nepal’s total exports. India is the largest trading partner of Nepal as well as largest provider of the foreign Investments. Nepal rely highly on India for its daily day-to-day needs a large number of Nepalese students come India for higher education, the working Nepali community in India also has a sizable amount. They send remittances to their country which is a major source for their GDP. Indo Nepal friendship Treaty of 1950, the geographical position of Nepal, the cultural similarities with India have a alligned Nepal to India for decades. Nepal didn't have access to see it is covered by Indian on three sides and Tibet(the namesake autonomous region PRC) but the Tibet Nepal border wasn’t suitable for trade and movement for a long time. Making Nepal a natural Ally and dependent on India.

India's relation with his himalayan neighbours has always been friendly. The year of 2015 was a turning point in the Indo-Nepal relations.2015 Nepal brought a new constitution which faced official objection from India as well as from human rights watchdogs, due to exclusion of Madhesi community. In protest Indiaunofficially imposed economic blockade onNepal which resulted in a shortage of daily needs items in Nepal. This was the root of anti India sentiment in Nepal, and for the last five years it has snowballed. The current PM of Nepal KP Sharma Oli is said to be the most end India and Pro China leader of the country ever. In 2017 Nepal objected India China trade route which was through the Kalapani region, formally objecting both India and China. In 2019 after making changes in the status of Jammu and Kashmir, India released and new map which faced protest from Nepal.

Then came 2020 in which Border Road organisation(BRO) inaugurated new road to the Mansarovar which passed through the Kalapani region (the old road was modified). Nepal held a strong protest on this. Then Nepal amended their constitution through a bill in which they included the areas of Kalapani Limphyadura and Lipulekh in their map. The Saugauli Treaty of 1816 between British Empire and Gorkha Kingdom of Nepal defined the border of India and Nepal. The Mahakali River was said to be the border of two countries in the West side where is the major River was considered the border in the Eastern side. Until 1880 the British showed the regions in Nepal but after that in Indian territory after realising the importance of the regions. Actual point of conflict is regarding which stream is the major stream of the Mahakali river, the Indian side says its the eastern stream whereas, the Nepali claims to be the Western stream.

The anti India sentiment in Nepal do have a Chinese flavour as the government in both the countries have communist ideology. China saved the disintegration of Nepal Communist Party twice in a year. As Nepal Communist Party was the merger of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). Pushpa Kamal Dahal popularly known as 'Prachanda' called for resignation of the Prime Minister. A surprising element here is that Chinese envoy to Nepal Hou Yanqi called for pruce between the two, not once but twice. A interesting fact here is that Nepal always claim that India interfere in their domestic politics but here Chinese envoy openly mediating in the party. The statements made by Prime Minister of Nepal can't be justified, from blaming indians for the spread of covid-19 in Nepal to claiming that delhi is planning to topple his government and also claiming the real Ayodhya to be in Nepal. He has done everything he could to do take Indo-Nepal relations to the worse point.

This reminds us of the Maldives scene in 2018 then Prime Minister of Maldives Mr Abdulla Yameen took a very anti India and Pro China even Pro Pakistani stance. India Maldives relations fell in cold box when Indian PM Narendra Modi cancelled his trip to Maldives when he was on a tour of Indian Ocean countries like Sri Lanka, Seychelles in 2016 due to Abdulla Yameen started practicing undemocratic activities like affecting judiciary and imprisoning opposition leaders. Not only India but UK and USA also protested against this autocratic behaviour of Abdulla Yameen. During his five-year term as the Prime Minister he took so much debt from China,which turned Maldives as the latest victim of "The Chinese Debt Trap".

The Chinese debt to the small Indian ocean country stood around $6 billion . It may appear small to Indian but its too large for a country which has a population of 5.16 lakhs . Also with that he cancelled many Indian projects while welcoming Chinese projects and debts.China-Maldives Friendship Bridge now known as Sinamale Bridge is a shining example of that. Maldives even gave the Feydhoo Finolhu Island to China on lease till 2066.2018 when general elections was held in the country resulting in depowering of Abdulla Yameen and installation of Mohammed Solih. Since then Maldives has been neutral towards India and China. The fair elections in Maldives was a big challenge because of Abdulla Yameen's authoritarian rule.But the damage has already been done.

India and Bhutan now stands as only countries not to join China's ambitious Belt and Road initiative Pakistan,Nepal ,Sri Lanka, Bangladesh< Maldives have already joined it, which raises economic as well as security challenge to India to which security experts calls "String of Pearls". The scenario of Maldives is repeating in Nepal. The Prime Minister and his ministers are repeatedly speaking against India and want India to speak against them so they can take their country away from the Indian influence towards to Chinese influence. A Recent example proved that when Nepal banned Indian news channels except Doordarshan because some Indian media outlets started portraying KP Sharma Oli's relationship with Chinese envoy Hou Yanqi. Need of the hour is that Indian side should behave very calmly and diplomatically. We should try to complete our projects in Nepal to maintain goodwill there while also giving focus on people to people relations between the countries.